Bitcoin’s rise is starting to slow down after a strong start to the year. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency peaked at just over $93,000 in early March, but it has since dropped to around $87,000. Now, many investors are wondering if this rally has more room to run or if Bitcoin’s breakout in 2025 is already over.
Bitcoin may be getting close to a very important turning point as macroeconomic uncertainty grows and technical indicators send out alerts.
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1. A good start, but the momentum is fading
Bitcoin started 2025 off on a high note, thanks to:
• Institutional inflows from Bitcoin ETFs
• Optimism about clearer U.S. regulations under the new administration
• Global macro trends that favor alternative stores of value
But recent price movements suggest that bullish momentum may be slowing down. MarketWatch analysts say that Bitcoin is having a hard time breaking through the $90,700 and $93,700 levels.
If it doesn’t break through those levels, traders could see a move back toward the $73,800 support zone.
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2. ETF flows are becoming mixed
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs sparked a lot of interest from institutions, but that interest is starting to fade. In March, crypto ETFs lost more than $500 million in net outflows as investors moved back into bonds and gold because inflation risks are still high.
Bitcoin may have a hard time keeping up its upward trend in the second quarter if ETF inflows keep going down.
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3. Warning Signs in the Derivatives Market
Futures and options data show that short-term traders are taking on more risk and are more likely to bet against the market. Open interest has gone up, but the funding rates on perpetual contracts have gone down, which is usually a sign that bullish conviction is fading.
Volatility is still high, which means that there is uncertainty ahead instead of a smooth continuation of the uptrend.
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4. There are still regulatory headwinds.
Even though politicians like Donald Trump are saying good things, the regulatory environment is still not clear. The SEC is still looking into stablecoin issuers and DeFi platforms, and there is still no agreement on how to tax cryptocurrencies or do KYC.
Without clear action from lawmakers, institutional investors may not want to increase their crypto holdings in the near future.
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5. Investor Mood: Is It Time to Peak or Pause?
Retail sentiment is still cautiously hopeful, but a lot of analysts think that the rally in 2025 may have already made some gains. Exchange inflows, miner selling activity, and wallet consolidation are all on-chain metrics that show a shift from neutral to bearish.
The chances of Bitcoin reaching $110,000 this year have dropped below 40% on Polymarket, a site for prediction markets.
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Final Thoughts: The Bull Isn’t Dead; It’s Just Sleeping
Bitcoin has made a lot of progress in 2025, but the next leg up might not be as easy. The rally is at a crossroads because resistance is growing and the macro conditions are changing. It might break through or pull back, depending on how clear the rules are, how fast ETFs are moving, and a new set of catalysts.
Now is the time for investors to stay informed, be careful, and be ready to act quickly because feelings in crypto change faster than any chart can show.
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