With the Nintendo Switch approaching its ninth birthday, it’s an understatement to say that the original hybrid console has been anything short of a sales phenomenon. With over 150 million units sold—the third best-selling console of all time—the Switch has single-handedly transformed handheld gaming and captured the hearts of millions. However, amid speculation of whether the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 can equal or even better the success of its predecessor, one analyst is placing a confident wager on a blockbuster launch. Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda has predicted that the Switch 2 can sell a staggering six million units in its debut quarter, if it manages a July release.
Yasuda’s forecast comes after industry speculation that the Switch 2 might not be able to match the original’s stratospheric sales. Though most analysts have cited the challenge of repeating history—citing factors like market saturation and shifting consumer expectations—Yasuda’s report is more optimistic. Writing on the Japanese GamesIndustry.biz website (translated by Tech4Gamers), he pointed out that if the console debuts in July, first-quarter sales of as many as six million units would be achievable in the second quarter of FY 2025/26. That, he says, would be an “incredible number” that contradicts the traditional wisdom that game consoles must release during the year-end sales period.
One of the reasons Yasuda is so bullish is in Nintendo’s production schedule and inventory management. According to the analyst, Nintendo had significantly built up its inventories in the third quarter of the current financial year—a period when inventories historically decrease after the holiday season. The fact that this was not so suggests that the company is preparing for a heavy follow-up to the original Switch. By increasing production well in advance, Nintendo appears to be positioning itself to flood the market with the Switch 2 from the beginning, potentially entombing the competition.
To put these estimates into perspective, let’s examine the production timeline and launch performance of other major consoles. The PlayStation 5, for instance, began manufacturing roughly five months before launch and went on to sell approximately 4.5 million units during its first quarter. If Yasuda’s estimates for the Switch 2 are correct, then it would mean Nintendo’s ramp-up was even longer, and the company would have a significant inventory advantage. This would allow Nintendo to not only meet but potentially break the six million unit mark in the first few months after launch.
This aggressive launch strategy could also be part of a greater plan to secure the company’s leadership in the console market for this generation. Yasuda believes that by selling such a massive number of units in so short a period, Nintendo can create a scenario in which competitors like Sony, with its own upcoming PS6, struggle to keep up. Flooding the market with the Switch 2 would be a powerful message to send to the industry and could be enough to win the battle for consumer mindshare in this saturated sector.
Historical performance of the original Switch also bodes well for a strong Switch 2 launch. The original console sold 2.74 million units in its debut quarter after its March 2017 launch, and a further 1.97 million units in the subsequent quarter. Following some early shortage at launch—a situation that had many eager fans waiting—the Switch went on to be a runaway success. Having learned from its predecessor’s early distribution issues, Nintendo is certainly taking no chances and making the Switch 2 widely available to avoid the shortage pitfalls that could dampen its immediate success.
The anticipation for the Switch 2 has been building steadily over the years, and Yasuda’s upbeat sales forecast can only add fuel to those flames. A release in July would be unconventional at best compared to the typical end-of-year console launches, but if Nintendo can go on to sell six million units in the first quarter, it would definitely alter industry perceptions. It would not just be a validation of Nintendo’s strategy but would set a new benchmark for console launches in an increasingly competitive space.
While we await further details on the Switch 2, gamers and industry observers will be watching closely to see if Nintendo can deliver on this ambitious prediction. While the ultimate success of the console will depend on an array of factors—from hardware performance and games lineup to market conditions and consumer enthusiasm—Yasuda’s projection offers an exciting glimpse at what might be one of the most robust console launches in recent memory.
What are your impressions of Nintendo’s future launch plan? Do you believe that the Switch 2 can not only match but surpass the original’s success? Let us know your impressions in the comments, and stay tuned as we continue to bring you all the latest as this new generation of gaming continues to take shape.
